Thursday, March 3, 2011

New Flood Outlook

The newest flood outlook was just posted from the National Weather Service.

WED JAN 26 2011
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS DES MOINES SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS THE
TIME PERIOD FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL 2011. IT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA...
IOWA...CEDAR...SKUNK...DES MOINES...RACCOON...NISHNABOTNA...
102...THOMPSON AND CHARITON RIVERS
...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...
* THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER INTO SPRING IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS IT IS MOST ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR...IOWA AND WINNEBAGO RIVER BASINS...AS
WELL AS IN THE UPPER DES MOINES RIVER BASIN.
* THE TIME PERIOD WHEN FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY BEGINS BY MID MARCH...AND
EXTENDS INTO APRIL. STREAM LEVELS TYPICALLY BEGIN INCREASING BY MID
MARCH. A SIGNIFICANT...PROLONGED WARM-UP MAY RESULT IN EARLIER RISES ON
THE STREAMS.
* BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICE JAMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS MOST
PRONE TO THEM. THEY WILL BE MOST LIKELY BY MID MARCH. THE RISK OF ICE
JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL. A QUICK WARM-UP MAY RESULT IN EARLIER ICE JAMS.
* ABNORMAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BETWEEN NOW AND THE SPRING THAW
MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE RISK OF FLOODING. THIS OUTLOOK ASSUMES NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SPRING THAW. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION WOULD TEND TO INCREASE THE RISK OF
FLOODING...WHEREAS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WOULD TEND TO DECREASE IT.
* THE RISK OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
AFTER THE SNOW MELTS...AND WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT LEAST INTO
LATE SPRING. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OR PROLONGED
FLOODING.
* WE WILL ISSUE OUR NEXT...UPDATED OUTLOOK ON THURSDAY...FEBRUARY 17

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